In San Ramon luxury real estate, Day 15 changes the conversation.

I analyzed 293 San Ramon sales at $2.5M+ from my MLS dataset going back to 2022.

One number jumped out.

Properties that sold within 14 days:

71% sold above asking.

Median result: $101,000 ABOVE list price.

Properties that took 15+ days:
Only 12% sold above asking.
Median result: $95,000 BELOW list price.
That’s a nearly $200,000 difference in the list-to-sale-price outcome.

And I don’t think the lesson is simply:
“Homes that sell quickly get more money.”

The more interesting question is why.

At this price point, buyers are highly selective. But when the right property enters the market at a price that creates immediate conviction, several qualified buyers can arrive at the same conclusion simultaneously.

That creates competition.

Once a luxury property sits, the psychology changes.

Buyers stop asking:
“How do we win this house?” and start asking:
“Why hasn’t anyone bought it?”

That is a very different negotiation.

Another interesting data point:
In 94582, the median $2.5M+ sale in this dataset was approximately $2.75M.
In 94583, it was approximately $3.05M.

Same city. Very different luxury-market dynamics.

For San Ramon homeowners considering selling above $2.5M, I would spend far more time thinking about the first two weeks of market positioning than debating whether the asking price should be another $50K or $100K higher.

The opening strategy may ultimately matter more than the opening price.

Question for homeowners and agents:
Do you think luxury listings develop a stigma faster today than they did a few years ago?